Five bold predictions for the Investec Champions Cup

Claiming the title as ‘the greatest show on turf’ the 1999 – 2001 St.Louis Rams earned their moniker for being a ludicrously prolific offensive NFL team. Winning a Super Bowl in this run in the 1999 season, the Rams redefined what people thought possible of an NFL offence.

Spearheaded by their conglomerate of incredible players, namely quarterback Kurt Warner, running back Marshall Faulk and wide receiver Isaac Bruce, the Rams at times looked unbeatable. Of course, their run would come to an abrupt end when Tom Brady began his run as the greatest NFL player of all time. The rest, as they say, is history as Brady went on to win six Super Bowls with New England before claiming a seventh in a magical season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Why is this relevant, as we hear you say? Well, in club rugby terms, the Investec Champions Cup is as big as it gets and is thus the most comparable competition to the NFL. Mirroring this early 2000s clash of styles, the former Heineken Cup has seen a few dynasties begin whilst others fade. In 1996, Stade Toulousain edged Cardiff to claim their first title, starting what many believed would be a dynasty. Stacked to the gills with French internationals, that Toulouse team led by the indelible Emile Ntamack and guided around the park by the mercurial Thomas Castaignede. Whilst Toulouse would need to wait until 2003 to claim their second title, they have been the closest thing to the Patriots in their ability to sustain success across a long period. In addition to this, Toulouse, when in form, is rugby’s answer to the greatest show on turf, with Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Blair Kinghorn and co in full flight as the best-attacking team in professional rugby. Further mirroring the New Englanders, Toulouse have claimed the title on six occasions without prolonged gaps between victories.

Of course, throughout the years, Toulouse has faced a multitude of rivals, from the great Leicester Tigers, Wasps and Munster sides of the 2000s to Toulon, Saracens, Leinster and La Rochelle in more recent times. Each maintains strong runs of their own with multiple titles in a similar manner to Patriots rivalries with the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants and more recently, the new superpower Kansas City Chiefs.

Unlike the Patriots who are in the midst of a rebuild, heading into this year’s Champions Cup, Toulouse once again enter the season as one of the key favourites alongside Leinster.

Whilst it would be easy to simply pencil in another final between the two favourites, we believe there are several wild directions the competition could go in. Here are three bold predictions for the upcoming Cup season.

A new world order
Before we kick this off, let’s be clear: Leinster and Toulouse will be a force once again this season. This being said both sides have trickier routes to the knockout stages, given their more challenging pools. Beginning with the Irish side begins their campaign on the road against a red-hot Bristol Bears side, who are in second place in the Gallagher Premiership with just a solitary loss this season. Their other road game is a trip to archrivals La Rochelle, who famously beat them in back-to-back seasons before the Dubliners gained revenge with two wins last season. At home, Leinster welcomes Premiership leaders Bath and a resurgent Clermon, who are currently third in the Top 14. In short, it is entirely possible that Leinster’s unbeaten pool runs could come to an end this season. Toulouse likewise has a challenging fixture bundled into their pool with a trip to Durban to face a Springbok-laden Sharks side. Should both sides lose a fixture or two, it could see them miss out on home advantage in the earlier rounds of the play-off and could even pit them against one another earlier than expected. In this situation, the playing field will be wide open, with plenty of candidates to take advantage of. In this scenario, teams such as the Hollywoodbets Sharks, Glasgow Warriors, Bordeaux-Begles, and Vodacom Bulls could all secure home quarterfinals. If this were to be the case, a trip away from home, particularly to South Africa, would pose a new challenge for both Toulouse and Leinster. Working off gut feel alone, the Sharks, if they click, have enough world-class talent to beat any team. Thus, with this in mind, we are tipping the Durban-based side to go all the way and add the Investec Champions Cup to their Challenge Cup title last season.

Back-to-back all-time knock-out shocks in-store
Building on the above scenario, the Sharks will host Leinster in the last-16 before facing Toulouse in the quarterfinal. Knocking out the two pre-season favourites, the Sharks would then need to hit the road for the semi-final due to the South African sides not being allowed to host a semi-final. Despite this, the Sharks will rely on the experience of their World Cup winners to do the impossible and knock out whoever they face at that stage. For argument’s sake, we will say that it will be URC champions Glasgow, who the Sharks have already beaten this season. Finally, the Sharks will clash with Munster Rugby in the final, which will be fresh off taking out Bordeaux on the road in another major upset. Ladies and gentlemen, that is what you call true chaos, and we are all for it.

Competition forced into a major overhaul
It probably doesn’t come as any great shock that most rugby fans do not feel the current format is the best we have seen in this competition. Gone are the days when every pool match was important, and instead, teams can now qualify from their pool courtesy of losing bonus points. In short, this is disingenuous to the very notion of competitive sport on a number of fronts. Firstly, the ability for teams to ‘throw’ games on the road in the name of rotation has already been evident in this format. Speaking openly last season, Vodacom Bulls boss Jake White was clear that his side was prioritising league success over the Champions Cup. Rotating their squad heavily for their away trips, the Bulls never put forward their best foot in the competition. In no way are we blaming White for this, given his duty of care to his players in terms of travel and what would appear to be a prioritisation of completing the objective set by his bosses to win the URC. Of course, historically, French sides in particular have fielded weakened sides in particular when they are out of the running which before would’ve ended their campaigns. Now a side can opt not to take any fixture seriously if they win their opening round match, instead they can do just enough to claim losing bonus points to secure a route to the next round. This season, if enough teams do this and only the handful of teams that still take the competition seriously put out their best sides, then it could be the catalyst for change. Of course, the blame does not lie exclusively with the EPCR, who in some respects have their hands tied by the ever-expanding global schedule. But it should be exactly the wake-up that all tournament organisers need to push through a more streamlined global season. To quote the great Marty McFly, “Doc, I’m from the future. I came here in the time machine that you invented. Now I need your help to get back to the year 1985” (In this instance, get us back to 2005 and real pool stages).