Opinion: England should beat the All Blacks - here's why

England welcome three-time world champions New Zealand to Twickenham on Saturday for the opening match of the Autumn Nations Series. Something feels a little different in the air this time, as though the winds of change are upon us.

England head into the match off the back of a greatly improved Six Nations and summer series filled with attacking intent, while the All Blacks have struggled to find their groove under new head coach Scott Robertson.

So it begs the question, who arrives at the match as favourites? Will the All Blacks prove the doubters wrong or will England push on and take their recent near miss one step further?

So, let’s start with the two matches between the two sides back in July. The All Blacks took victory, yes. But convincingly, no. While the results suggested New Zealand’s dominance, the games themselves told a different tale.

Despite their dominance for much of the matches, England struggled to close off both games, allowing New Zealand to use their immense experience and talent to pip the visitors to the post. In front of a roaring Twickenham crowd, however, England’s ability to close out the game could well carry weight.

In Auckland and Dunedin, England attacked the All Blacks with fast, fluid play. Although closing off matches away from home proved concerning, a similar approach can be expected at Twickenham. For this test, head coach Steve Borthwick has selected an electrifying backline built for speed, power, and creativity, aiming for the same potent offence that looked so promising in the summer.

Meanwhile, England’s powerful forwards are primed to test an All Black defence less accustomed to the physicality typical of the Gallagher Premiership. If England can match the All Blacks’ speed while dominating the gain line, they could throw the Kiwis off balance.

The key difference compared to the summer, will be the location. Twickenham itself is the game-changer. England at home is a different beast, as fans at the Six Nations win over Ireland would attest. The oddly quiet Twickenham Stadium of recent years emerged from what felt like an eternal slumber that night. To spark a similar response from the crowd on Saturday and defeat a team they’ve only beaten 8 times in their history, England must play a style of rugby that will keep the fans roaring.

So how do they do that? What does the game plan look like? Well, judging simply by the players selected, Steve Borthwick has his chess pieces in order to play a multi-layered attack.

Starting with the front row, the experienced trio of Ellis Genge, Jamie George and Will Stuart provide as secure a forward foundation as you’re likely to find in international rugby, administering the base for which the rest of the squad can work.

Maro Itoje will guide promising star George Martin in the row as they orchestrate the all-important set piece. Both able to perform duties as extra back row players, Borthwick is expected to employ the locks and the imposing back row of Chandler Cunningham-South, Ben Earl and Tom Curry as imposing battering rams, giving scrum-half Ben Spencer quick front-foot ball for the dynamic backs.

Spencer’s halfback pairing with Marcus Smith is an exciting prospect, but also one that needs to work if England are to take victory. Their main job on Saturday will be to create space for their outside backs to flourish. Spencer works week in and week out with mercurial fly-half Finn Russell at Bath, a player very similar to Marcus’ mould, so for the two to flourish, Spencer needs to brunt the majority of the game control while Smith is given the freedom to express.

The centre combination of Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade is tried and tested and is widely accepted as England’s first-choice midfield partnership. The back three are near enough settled, but they can only excel if those around them allow them the opportunity.

England will come into the match feeling like favourites, but with that comes a certain amount of pressure. The key, however, is to take control early and make their opportunities pay. If the match becomes an out-of-control, free scoring, try fest, then there is no better side in the world than the All Blacks. But if England can play fast while retaining control, then the match is theirs to win.

Prediction: England 22-12 New Zealand